Current Affairs

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS): IMD’s New Forecast Model

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) launched a new Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) with an objective to offer more accurate and credible weather forecasts weather conditions down to the block level.

Benefits of EPS

The new system will accurately predict the rainfall in any particular helping farmers to farmers prevent damage to crops. Also, the new system will render help to the agencies in preparing for the harsh weather conditions. The system will overcome the problem of uncertainties in the forecasts.
With this new model, India joins the US with a model that predicts with a 12 km resolution. Only the 'European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast' of United Kingdom has a, better, nine-kilometre resolution. 

About of EPS

Ensemble Prediction System is developed jointly by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting with the procurement of penta computers at a cost of Rs 450 crore. 
The system will help in generating newer forecasts predictions of a 12 km resolution compared to 23 kilometres in the earlier system. It involves the generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions. The accuracy level would be very high in the new system.

Problem with Old Ensembling System

Indian Meteorological Department issues its forecast for the June-September monsoon season in April. These predictions are based which is based on the Ensemble Statistical Forecasting System that uses five predictors. The problem is that this method uses data from the past 100 years to come up with a forecast when many of the relationships between global climate factors have changed.

Expected Questions

Mark the incorrect statement regarding new Ensemble Prediction Systems launched by India Meteorological Department.
(a) With this new model, India joins the US with a model that predicts with a 13 km resolution
(b) ESPP is built with the 500-crore acquisition of eight petaflops high-power computing systems.
(c) The system will help in generating newer forecasts predictions of a 12 km resolution compared to 25 kilometres in the earlier system. 

A. a and b are incorrect
B. a and c are incorrect
C. b and c are incorrect
D. All are incorrect
E. All are correct

Which of the following is the only country that has an Ensemble Prediction Systems with nine-kilometre resolution?
a. Russia
b. United States
c. United Kingdom
d. China
e. Japan
Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS): IMD’s New Forecast Model Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS): IMD’s New Forecast Model Reviewed by insiya yadav on June 02, 2018 Rating: 5

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